Washington: Bucking the trend of shortfall in world food production, India's output along with that of the European Union (EU) is expected to be higher this year, according to Earth Policy Institute, an environmental research group.

Among major producers, the planted area in 2004 is up in India and the EU, compared with 2003, but down in China, the US, Russia and Ukraine, with little change in area overall, Lester Brown, an agricultural expert who heads the Earth Policy Institute, said at a press conference yesterday (May 5, 2004).

According to official Indian Government estimates, India's food grain output in 2003-04 is pegged at an all-time high of 212.20 million tonnes, up 22 per cent from 174.19 million tonnes in the previous year.

Brown said that the world food production will fall short of the requirement by 60 million tonnes during 2004, the fifth consecutive year of shortfall which will translate into still higher food prices.

Consumers will pay more for food at a time when oil prices are also shooting up because of the security situation in the Middle East, he said.

Global grain production during 2004 will be 1,887 million tonnes and consumption 1,947 million tonnes, a shortfall of 60 million tonnes.

The four harvest shortfalls from 2000 through 2003 have dropped world carryover stocks to the lowest level in 30 years, amounting to only 59 days of consumption, against 70 days recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization, Brown added.