Washington: The US job market shows signs of coming back to life, according to a
government report on June 7, but the tepid pace means the overall economy is still
plodding its way out of recession.
The Labour Department said the economy added some 41,000 jobs in May as the
unemployment rate declined two-tenths of a point to 5.8 per cent. It was the largest
increase in non-farm payrolls since February 2001, and marks the second straight
monthly increase after 12 consecutive monthly declines.
The unemployment rate was better than expected on Wall Street, although the number
of job creations was less than many had hoped for, and economists said the figure
was not strong enough to give a major boost to the economy.
Analysts say the economy cannot rev up without a boost for employment, which in turn
boosts consumer spending. "The news was good, though not great", said Joel Naroff of
Naroff Economic Advisors. "Payrolls are rising, but very slowly."
Anthony Karydakis of Bank One said, "The report is mildly disappointing. This
represents a substantial improvement compared to five or six months ago, where the
series was turning out sizable monthly declines."
"On the surface, it's the second month of employment gains, but gains are extremely
modest," said Stephen Gallagher at Societe Generale.
"For the economy, the big news is that heavy job losses of late 2001 have come to an
end. What is not materialising is job growth. The lack of job growth is not a
surprise. Companies need to grow more confident in their profit prospects before
taking on new employees. Before that occurs, more effort will be made to extract
productivity, a process that enhances profits."
The report shows that the labour market is bottoming out, but it will take several
months of sustained firming before the Federal Reserve will be comfortable in
raising interest rates, analysts said.
"The modest back-to-back growth in payrolls over the past two months shows we're at
the beginning of a comeback," said Wayne Ayers, Chief Economist at
FleetBoston.
Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch said the slow job growth simply reflects tightening
at companies that will ultimately lead to improved profits, and in turn to job
growth. "The continued softness of the labour market is a function of corporate
restructuring and strong productivity gains," he said.
Others say the economy still faces risks, including the global tensions and domestic
security woes that have hurt Wall Street and the dollar.
"The recovery in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors continues to gain
momentum," said Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo Bank.
"However, the stock market has largely ignored the good economic news, and investor
sentiment is currently poor. Stock investors are spooked, and these concerns have
begun to weigh on the US Dollar. The danger is that the recent decline in the stock
market and poor investor sentiment could soon translate into worsening consumer and
business sentiment that would further constrain if not choke-off the economic
recovery."