Mumbai: The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) expects the economic scene to worsen during 2002-03 and real GDP growth was projected to grow by only 4.5 per cent compared to the 5.7 per cent rise estimated for 2001-02.

The Reserve Bank of India, however, in its monetary and credit policy for 2002-03 projected real GDP growth for this fiscal at 6-6.5 per cent.

In its latest monthly review on the Indian economy, CMIE in a release in Mumbai on May 14, described the fiscal year 2001-02 as the worst since the 1991 crisis.

CMIE expects the agricultural sector to grow by only two per cent while production of agricultural commodities was projected to grow by 1.5 per cent. Of these, production of cereals was expected to remain flat but oilseeds production was projected to rise by 6.4 per cent, the release said.

The food products and capital goods groups are projected to post declines and this along with the slowdown in the growth in the petroleum-refining sector would contain the growth in the industrial sector, it added.

Industrial growth would post a small improvement from 2.7 to 3.5 per cent in 2002- 03, it said adding that the services sector as a whole was projected to grow by about 6.5 per cent.

Within services, the telecom sector was expected to grow at a healthy pace while the cement sector was projected to continue to do well, CMIE said.

PTI