Manila: East Asian economies are moving from last year's sharp and synchronised
slowdown to a faster-than-expected but moderate rebound, the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) said on April 1.
But the Manila-based bank warned in its latest economic analysis of the region that
the positive outlook could be marred by a weaker rebound in the United States and a
possible extension of the US-led anti-terrorism operations to the Middle
East.
On the domestic front, East Asian economies could strengthen regional recovery by
supporting demand through further interest rate cuts and easing fiscal policy, said
the bank's quarterly economic review of East Asia.
"Based on available economic indicators, many of East Asia's economies have started
to pick up, lifted by stronger domestic demand and renewed business confidence," the
report said. "Exports are also starting to turn around."
Overall improvements in economic prospects have also led to upward revisions in the
2002 growth forecast for East Asian economies analysed by the
The economies comprised China, South Korea and the 10 states of the Association of
Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) -- Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
The ADB report would be tabled at a meeting of Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN) finance deputies in Myanmar's capital Yangon this weekend ahead of
talks among the region's finance ministers, ADB officials said.
ADB has been supporting a "surveillance process" for ASEAN after the region was hit
by its worst financial crisis in 1997.
Last year, East Asia suffered weak to negative economic growth due to a significant
drop in demand for the region's exports stemming from a synchronised slowdown in the
industrial countries led by the United States and the collapse of the information
technology industry worldwide.
The ADB report on April 1 forecast 2002 growth for China at 7.2 percent, Vietnam at
5.7 percent, Laos 5.0 percent, Indonesia 3.1 percent, Thailand 2.8 percent, South
Korea 4.7 percent Cambodia 4.5 percent, Singapore 3.8 percent and Malaysia and the
Philippines at 3.6 percent each.
It warned however of "certain risks and uncertainties" that could dampen growth in
the region this year, citing, among others, the possibility of 2002 growth in the
United States turning to be lower than the expected 2.1 per cent.
Another risk factor cited was higher crude oil prices from a possible spillover of
the ongoing US-led anti-terror operations to the Middle East.