New York: The global economy is about to turn the corner, leading central bankers said on Monday, but there were signs recovery could be long and painful.

The White House pushed up its forecast for the U.S. budget deficit, General Motors Corp said a bankruptcy filing had become "more probable," EU and U.S. businesses are set to cut more jobs and banks are still absorbing the impact of bad debts.

U.S. and European stocks fell and oil slid as investors locked in profits after a strong run-up and as major U.S. banks announced large stock offerings to repay government bailouts.

The central bankers' cautious optimism was backed by growing indications the economic and financial crisis is abating.

China said its efforts to boost economic growth were working, surveys showed business confidence returning in major emerging and European Union economies and the co-chief executive of German business software maker SAP said he expects "glimmers of hope" for the world economy in the second half.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was scheduled to speak at a financial conference later Monday (1930 EDT/2330 GMT) and was expected to be questioned on recession and recovery.

Barclays Capital analyst Barry Knapp wrote that "we suspect the final month (of the recession) might be April 2009." But he added note of caution, saying that "we continue to believe that the equity market and, more recently, some parts of the fixed-income market have overshot the improvement of the economic outlook."

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Source : Reuters